Fall: Brief Light and Long Shadows

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Fall on Howard & 7th Streets, San Francisco, CA

The autumn afternoon vanishes in long shadows quickly and without a sound. I emerge from my office and ask no one in particular, “When did it get dark?” The clock on the mantle ticks relentlessly and without remorse. Taking the measure of my life it reminds me another sunset has passed. Another night’s sleep is due. Space above is beautiful but nothing but darkness. Winter will soon bring more shadows than light. I still cherish Mother Earth even when the long shadows rule.

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Weekly Photo Challenge: Eerie

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Pigeon Point Lighthouse along the San Mateo County Coast

Dim lights in the distance. It’s still a long walk along the sand within feet of the boiling surf and the rocky cliffs, dark and ominous, above. Does it mean an end to the journey or is it just the beginning of an eerie story ready to unfold?

http://dailypost.wordpress.com/2013/11/01/photo-challenge-eerie/

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Weekly Photo Challenge: Horizon

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Marin Headlands, Marin County, CA

We held hands for a moment in time, but we’ll never know if we had a chance. I thought us worthy but, in time, we learned we each swayed to a different rhythm in life’s dance. I walked away without looking back, afraid to take a glance.

So many different horizons.

http://dailypost.wordpress.com/2013/10/25/weekly-photo-challenge-horizon/

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Without Conviction

Securities brokers like to say price movement without much sales volume is a market moving “without conviction.” We seem to be in that mode in the Bay Area home market right now. Sales volume dropped in September and prices are meandering. (See https://graphicrealestate.wordpress.com/sf-bay-area-housing-trends/ above.) The median home price in the Bay Area actually dropped for the second month in a row to $530,000 in September and it is 5.7% below the July peak. Sales volume i20131005-2pac_04_DSC7346n September was up 4.2% on a year-over-year basis but it is about 5% below the average level for the prior 12 months. Things typically slow down in the latter part of the year so a drop in sales volume is not a reason to walk off the end of the nearest pier.

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Where Were You?

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Ocean Beach, SF, Fault to the Right

5:04 p.m., 10/17/1989, 24 years ago today, where were you? I was at my desk writing an appraisal report. It was a warm October day. Door was closed and all my windows were open. I was sitting in a sixth-floor corner office in an 86-year-old office building at the southwest corner of Mission and New Montgomery Streets. The building had survived the 1906 quake only to be gutted by the fire in the aftermath. I was tapping away at the keyboard when I noticed the first shake. “Oh, I said, we’re having an earthquake.” It continued and I thought to myself, “Oh, it’s a good one.” Then I heard the windows rattling and the wood frames splitting and the bricks of the façade crumbling and I dove under my desk. I heard loud noises from outside like things falling and crashing and I said to myself, “Oh, I’m gonna die!” I jumped right over that executive desk in a single bound and ran for the elevators. The main office was empty. I got to the elevator lobby and every person from every office on the floor was standing there wide-eyed and huddled together. My friend Sam had his two big hands covering the heads of two little gals who worked at the other end of the hall. Just to tempt the fates, however, I moved 15 miles south and now my back yard is the San Andreas Fault. Twenty-four years, no more big ones – knock on wood.

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Little Egret

Some days architecture does not stir my creative spirit. I look to landscapes and nature to sharpen my camera’s eye. Living in the SF Bay Area you do not have to travel too far to find enticing vistas or w20131013-2bg_01_DSC7402ildlife sharing this small corner of the planet. While walking along the Bay Trail in Burlingame I found a Little Egret who was not shy. The gulls and whimbrels and avocets and killdeer I usually run into make tracks when I point 300mm of lens in their direction. I went over at low afternoon tide as it’s usually a good time to catch feeding action along the shore. Since low morning tide was at 1 a.m. I figured the light would be better in the afternoon, as well. I was right. It was a rare wind-less afternoon along the bay so the shoreline was crowded with birds. I even got to watch a couple of pelicans dive bomb the little fish that were running close to shore. I am certainly glad I can drive to Ichiban on El Camino Real for my sushi instead of diving into the bay.

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Saturated: A Weekly Photo Challenge

On a slow business week: government shutdown, no employment statistics, stock market sliding; I thought an image of the recently departed summer might help. I miss summer and it’s only been gone a week or so. We didn’t really have a very nice one here20130628-2SF_25_DSC_5958-1920 south of San Francisco. Never really got hot. Coldest during the 10-year span I’ve lived on the Peninsula. So, there was this one hot spell, though, and I happened to be in San Francisco and saw that it was clear on Twin Peaks. You’ll recognize that part of SF by the huge TV broadcast antenna tower perched atop it like an anachronism from the past. What 21-Century tech junkie uses an antenna in an urbanized area anymore??? Ever heard of cable or satellite? So I bopped to the top and found… WEIRDNESS! When I looked through my long telephoto at downtown I saw waves in the air. Heat waves! In San Francisco? Yes… and an interesting photo with comically saturated colors instead of the usual fog-induced diffusedness to which I am accustomed. Ah, the Bay Area, always something new.

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Right Through the Heart

Cupid’s Bow and Arrow along the Embarcadero presents a nice frame for downtown San Francisco. It’s actually located20130923-2SF_05_DSC7238 south of Market Street so it’s technically SOMA, but, let’s work with an open border policy here. The Embarcadero is a neighborhood of it’s own. The Port of San Francisco is the master and commander of lands on the east side of the street. The Ferry Plaza, new Exploratorium facility, Pier 39: all well known and well used facilities. There’s a pier north of the bridge I appraised more than 10 years ago that’s still in a sad state though. The old “location, location, location” mantra can mean a half block in many instances. A slight shift in auto or foot traffic can make a big difference in use. Luckily, a huge bow and arrow create an interesting frame-within-a-frame for an image of San Francisco.

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Wow, Big Drop in Unemployment Rate… But, Oh, Wait…

20130921-2sun_01_DSC7170You really have to start questioning unemployment numbers from the State and the Feds. It’s a weird time. The unemployment rate for the nine-county Bay Area region dropped to 6.6% in August 2013 from 7% in July (See SF Bay Area Employment Trends page above). The actual level of employment ticked up slightly but it is still 12,000+ below the recent peak employment figure set in May of this year. But wait! The labor force dropped by more than 12,000 from July to August. Where have these people gone??? The state’s recent labor market news release didn’t touch on this but when you see the labor force drop sharply and employment rise slightly you get a big percentage movement. What does the unemployment rate really mean if so many people are dropping out of the job market? It’s like this picture. You can’t really tell if it’s a sunrise or a sunset. Does it matter?

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Bloom Off the Rose???

The housing market is cyclical. It is not consistent from area to area. Prices go up and sometimes, as we know all too well, they go down. The Bay Area median home price (all homes and condos) dropped in August of 2013 to $540,000 from the July figure of $562,000. (See SF Bay Area Housing Trends above) It is still well below the June-July 2007 peak of $665,000. Sales volume also dropped in August but this is a nor20130916-2sad_02__DSC7153mal characteristic of the market according to DQ News, the source of the sales data I track. The market trend line continues upward but, for at least one month, the bloom is off of the rose. The Fed will continue to inflate the economy, likely due to the still-less-than-rosy housing market and the miserable nationwide labor participation rate. Putting the brakes on the housing market with a slower velocity of money would not go well when many people are still un- or under- employed. These sure are interesting economic times.

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